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Increasing pension fund sponsor interest in the Global Investment
Conference coupled with high-quality presentations and discussions
confirm the importance of investments in non-domestic financial
assets. This interest will grow over time with the easing of foreign
property investment restrictions. Foreign investments could become
even more important in pension fund portfolios if the federal government
accepts the reasonable position of eliminating all foreign investment
restrictions, thereby permitting pension fund sponsors to choose
their optimum foreign investment position based on their asset and
liability characteristics.
As international investment grows, so too does a number of important
related issues; many of these issues were addressed in presentations
at this year's conference. I will focus on two observations from
the event, each of which warms the corners of my academic heart.
The first is the growing role and acceptance of quantitative data
and analysis; the second is the importance of risk in the international
investment context. Investment is about risk and expected return;
understanding risk and deciding whether or not to manage it is crucial.
I will expand on the risk theme, but a short digression on the
first is useful since it identifies an important issue in international
investing--the waning role of global and local market influences
and the growing importance of global sectors. These conclusions
articulated at the conference are based on analyses of correlation
coefficients with the caveat that historical correlation coefficients
are becoming less useful for future periods as global market structures
evolve. This observation is consistent with the growth of international
diversification and the inherent contradiction of this growth--as
world markets become more integrated through diversification investments,
international diversification benefits diminish because correlations
between markets become larger. What was most striking about these
presentations was the high quality of the discussion surrounding
these quantitative issues; it was not too long ago that presentations
of this type would generate more yawns and frustrated looks than
interested questions.
Risk factors in the international context include specific elements
such as foreign exchange and the diversification issues of introducing
specific investment classes such as hedge funds. What I found interesting
at the conference was risk as related to information, or more precisely,
unequal information between parties in international investing known
as asymmetric information. Asymmetric information leads to problems
both before a transaction is made (adverse selection) and after
it is made (moral hazard).
INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES
In the first situation, a company's management has better information
about its quality than do potential investors. Even with mandated
information provision, asymmetries can persist. In this case, purchasers
may end up with poor quality investments and pay prices unrelated
to quality.
The second problem, resulting from difficulty in monitoring management
behaviour once an investment has been made, permits management to
undertake decisions against shareholders' best interests. Because
of these influences, fewer investments will be undertaken and those
that are undertaken will be at a discount to compensate investors
for potential problems.
The problems of information asymmetries and problematic monitoring
arose in a number of contexts during the conference. In one presentation,
operational risk associated with global investing was highlighted.
This risk was related to incorrect incentives, improper procedures
and inadequate monitoring when control is remote from investments.
As control diminishes, strategies must be implemented to hedge/manage
operational risk. Further, making a non-domestic investment magnifies
these problems since it is more difficult to obtain information
and to monitor from afar. That is especially true for smaller firms
or private equity investments.
These concerns may explain the strong observed home bias in portfolios,
even in countries that do not have foreign investment restrictions.
Home bias is found in domestic investments where geography plays
an important role. For example, mutual fund investments within a
particular distance from head office outperform investments beyond
this distance. The implication for foreign investments is to use
a local agent who has better local information and can monitor more
effectively for investments with characteristics conducive to asymmetric
information.
The third instance of information and risk was observed in managers'
incentives to use aggressive accounting practices and their impacts
on reported income and ultimately, share price. While many of the
practices are known, allowance may not be made in financial analysis.
The obvious example is the revenue recognition issue noted recently
by the Ontario Securities Commission.
Many important issues were discussed at this year's Global Investment
Conference. I chose to highlight the information issues due to the
importance of information in valuation and company performance.
While complete information provision cannot and should not be legislated,
capital market participants, acting rationally, will provide the
correct incentives to companies (management) to provide the needed
information to assist in effective valuation.
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