|
That there is a link between the presence of danger and the potential
for opportunity has been known since ancient times by the Chinese.
The word 'crisis' in Chinese is shown as [?], the character on the
left signifying danger and the character on the right standing for
opportunity. The focus of a crisis often splits evenly between these
two ideas.
This association gained widespread acceptance from the business
community around 1776, when Adam Smith argued in the Wealth of Nations
that individuals will invest resources so as to earn the highest
possible return. It follows, Smith wrote, that the risk-adjusted
return on different investments must be equal.
Much has changed since Smith's time. Knowledge about risk has increased
exponentially, as has the variety of risks. Investors now have to
pay attention to systematic risk, inflation risk and mirror risk,
to name a few. (If you are not familiar with the latter term, John
Prestbo, editor of Dow Jones Indexes explains the concept in his
article, which is part of our special report on risk.) With the
increase in foreign content limits and investors generally investing
more beyond our shores, currency and political risk must also be
taken into account.
And what of our local markets? A general feeling of uncertainty
seems to be plaguing the markets lately. The prices of stocks of
many technology companies have dropped and signs of economic slowdown
are appearing. Many economists are pointing to a possible slowdown
or bear market ahead.
Risky markets, indeed. But remember the character on the right.
Where there is risk, opportunity can also be found. Considering
the current fixed income market, many governments around the world
have reduced their deficits and worked towards getting their fiscal
houses in order. As a result, government debt issuance is on the
decline and institutional investors must look more to corporate
bonds to satisfy their fixed income requirements. It is true that
increasing the amount of corporate bonds over government bonds introduces
more credit risk into the portfolio, but it also creates significant
opportunities for higher return and improved portfolio performance.
Careful analysis of individual companies will be a must.
In equity markets, analysts will need to have in-depth understanding
of the products and services each company under review produces.
As technological advances continue, certain products and services
will be in greater demand, potentially resulting in higher prices
for these stocks.
Improved risk tools have been developed to measure and manage risks.
Losses can't be completely avoided, but they can certainly be mitigated.
On the other hand, opportunities will likely be harder to find in
the upcoming months. But the relationship that has continued since
the beginning of time will not change: where there is risk, opportunity
is right next door.
|