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The capital markets of the future will look vastly different from
those of today. Let me be bold enough to look out to the year 2010.
At a recent symposium organized by the Rotman School of Business
at the University of Toronto, I offered the following predictions:
The individual investor will have completed the journey of being
on an equal footing with the institutional portfolio manager. By
2010, not only will all information disseminated be available instantaneously
to anyone with a laptop, palm-device or e-enabled cellular telephone
that's turned on (on a planetary scale), but artificial intelligence
software will filter, shape, and compare such data faster than you
can say, "discounted dividend model."
Mutual funds will certainly be very, very, different than we know
them today, if they exist at all. Funds, or Closed end Trusts (CETs)
will be valued hourly, or even completely exchange-traded. Say goodbye
to deferred sales charges and trailer fees. In the same way that
the Internet has reshaped secondary market trading, it will have
reshaped the primary markets and the trading of debt instruments.
We'll have the FPO, the Fast Public Offer!
Online new issues, by the way, will not be confined to small capitalized
issues; no, even the most major issues will be done this way. Indeed,
the Federal Government will, in all likelihood, be a direct issuer
of retail debt securities. Beyond this, way beyond this, by 2010
we'll have full reciprocity across securities commissions around
the world as we discover the opportunities and the challenges of
a capital market that never sleeps, let alone blinks!
That's right, forget Before-Hours-Trading, or After-Hours-Trading,
and prepare for All-Hours-Trading. A market that never sleeps. Consider
the challenges of just keeping the books straight in the capital
world of 2010. Straight-through, real-time processing, and an order
book that follows the sun will make the parochial interests of upstairs
trading desks challenged, to say the least.
Our client will no longer be satisfied with getting it now. They
will want it right now! Advice will be a discretely paid-for service,
and will sit hand in hand with online self-managed activities. May
I pose the hypothesis that today's answers to trade-based suitability
judgments are likened to driving a car backwards at 120 kilometers
an hour while staring at the road ahead?
So, as we prepare for the next 10 years, we must understand that
our knowledge of converging voice, data and wireless technologies,
together with evolving software for data analysis and portfolio
optimization will be equally important to our knowledge of security
and market analysis. As David Pottruck, Chief Executive Officer
of Charles Schwab & Co. once said, "welcome to the world
of HMO pricing in the investment business" -- The market will
distinguish different levels of service and advice across numerous,
scalable, price points. Further, the consumer will demand full choice
in one provider, not the need to choose among different providers
of "discount," or "full service," or "discretionary,"
or "online." With all-hours trading and a client that
wants access to advice right now, how will we on the one hand integrate
such technologies as co-browsing, and on the other hand provide
a one-to-one relationship when required, even at 2:00 a.m.?
Finally, think about inexorable compression in the value of what
we do. Think about how we must double our productivity, while the
price of what we do is cut in half by market forces.
Paul Bates is President & CEO of Charles Schwab Canada.
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