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European equities have performed well over the past decade. Reasons
behind this strong performance are well documented: falling interest
rates, corporate restructuring, management focus on shareholder
value, boom in the savings industry and the associated emergence
of a retail equity culture.
Are all these factors reflected in the price? - No. Firstly, these
supportive trends are still very much in place and gathering momentum.
Secondly, new positive trends are emerging that will drive European
equity markets further. In fact, Europe can very much be described
as an environment of change.
Change is occurring at all levels: the macroeconomic level, the
level of the capital markets, the companies' level and finally at
the individual investors' level.
While the 1990s were a story of disinflation and budgetary discipline
(trying to get ready for monetary union), these years were also
years of very low economic growth, especially compared to the U.S.
At last, growth is now picking up strongly in Europe: 1999 has been
a good year and 2000, helped by the weakness of the Euro, looks
to show an acceleration.
Unemployment, the curse of Europe throughout the decade, is falling
significantly for the first time in years. In a context of low interest
rates and benign inflation, it could even be argued that the so-called
"new paradigm" has finally reached Europe and that this
is not just a cyclical improvement. This view is supported by the
fact that long-awaited structural changes--such as tax reform in
Germany--are taking place.
European capital markets are also changing. Firstly, they remain
largely underdeveloped compared to the U.S., as measured by the
ratio of market capitalization to GDP, and have therefore still
significant room for future growth. But more importantly, they are
also undergoing qualitative changes.
Technology, as a sector, becomes increasingly available for investment
in Europe. This is key, as the U.S. is too often regarded as the
only place to invest in the industries of the future.
Indeed, there are even some industries--such as mobile telecommunications--where
European firms are clear world leaders. In other areas, such as
Internet penetration, Europe may have lagged behind, but is now
catching up very quickly.
The attitude of major European companies towards investors and
the capital markets is also evolving. Whereas in the last decade
companies were mainly preoccupied with cost cutting and restructuring
(in an admittedly difficult economic environment), they are now
focusing on growth and profitability.
Again, there is still plenty of room for improvement compared to
the U.S., which bodes well for the catch-up potential of European
equity markets.
Moreover, managements are now paying real attention to their share
price. This is firstly because stock option schemes are becoming
more widespread. But this new attitude is also triggered by necessity,
as evidenced by the sharp rise witnessed in mergers and acquisitions.
Europe is no longer the cozy and protected environment it has been
for so many years. Cross-border and hostile bids have reached unprecedented
record levels: indeed, the largest ever hostile bid took place in
Europe this year when Vodafone of the U.K. successfully acquired
Mannesmann of Germany. It has become crucial for companies to sustain
a high valuation level if they want to remain independent.
In this respect, European companies are now paying new attention
to one of their most precious resources: their share capital. Instead
of frequently issuing new shares to finance projects whose profitability
was sometimes questionable, they now focus on cash generation and
increasingly buy back their own shares. This cannot be bad for the
performance of European equity markets.
Lastly, European individual investors are changing their saving
patterns. This is not a new phenomenon, but it is a very powerful
and long lasting one which is gathering momentum. Europeans have
realized they cannot rely on existing state controlled unfunded
pension schemes. They are not waiting for a general reform of the
European pension systems, which may prove elusive. They are already
buying equities for their old age.
Again, as shown by the still low (compared to the U.S.) equity
ownership levels prevailing in most European countries, there is
room for further progress, which is bullish for European equity
markets.
Additionally, the absolute low level of interest rates and the
fact that governments, benefiting from lower budget deficits, are
issuing far fewer bonds are strengthening the preference of investors
for equities.
Therefore, beyond short-term valuation concerns in some sectors
that may cause a pause in the performance of European equity markets,
the long-term outlook remains extremely favourable.
Olivier Rudigoz is the Senior Fund Manager with Merrill Lynch
Mercury Asset Management in London, England.
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