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Every day it's something new. Who could have predicted that fishermen
would be selling their catch over the Internet instead of at the
traditional dockside auction? From the advent of the Internet, to
Christmas shopping on-line, to e-fishermen, a tidal wave of technological
change shows no signs of slowing.
From an investment standpoint, we must question whether the landscape
has changed as well. Should we continue to use tried and true methods
of analysis, or change the way we value securities of these new
companies?
On one hand there are those who think that many technology stocks
have tremendous potential and so deserve their sky-high valuations.
On the other hand are investors who believe the prices of these
stocks reflect pure speculation. This group, which encompasses traditional
value investors, thinks the prices of these equities are due to
fall--plummet, in fact.
It is an understatement to say it hasn't been easy being a value
investor over the last several years. Even though many value investors
believe they will ultimately be proven right when the speculative
bubble bursts, they still have to admit they have missed out on
tremendous gains. Sticking to your value investing guns has been
hard on returns, patience, and in some cases ego. One money manager
recently acknowledged that as he watches the high flyers continue
to rise, "it's like a personal affront."
Some have changed their minds and started to invest in new economy
companies. A daily financial newspaper recently sported the headline,"Suddenly,
Wall Street believes in Amazon.com." The article describes
how investment advisors are now overlooking the company's huge losses
and singing the praises of Amazon's potential.
Brian Schofield has realized the potential of Amazon.com for some
time. Schofield is a fund manager for the YMG Sustainable Development
Mutual Fund and YMG Sustainable Value Pension Fund. He points out
in his article on page 16 that investing is still, as ever, based
on corporate performance; more specifically, on future income streams.
However, he believes we need to use new analytical tools to define
value, particularly the value of new economy companies such as Amazon.com,
Yahoo! Inc., or Nortel Networks. Economic Value Added (EVA*)
is a useful tool for this purpose. This measure can assist in evaluating
both old and new economy companies, and can be used by both growth
and value-style investors. EVA may be especially helpful for the
latter group, not only to determine value but to explain to plan
sponsors why they hold certain highly valued technology stocks in
their portfolio, or not.
It is harder to determine value and pick stocks these days. Figuring
out which companies will prosper in the new economy and which will
fall by the wayside is a complex job. However, new tools are at
hand which can help. Investors need to keep an open mind and utilize
all available methods to advance this task.
*EVA is a registered trademark of Stern, Stewart & Co.
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