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| Capital Costs In Canada |
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Understanding the costs of capital is important for both valuation
and performance measurement purposes, note Justin Pettit, partner
and Thomas Kalafatis, financial analyst, both with Stern Stewart
& Co. in New York.
Cost of capital, they note, is not a cash cost, but an opportunity
cost--one that recognizes investors' expectations for future returns
to sufficiently compensate them for a perceived level of risk. In
a recent paper they provide some insights into the measurement of
systematic risk. The findings:
- Investors expect a 4.35% return premium in the stock market
over Canadian government long bonds, based on average annualized
stock return premiums from 1934 to 1997.
- The risk-free rate proxy is not completely riskless, as long
term government bonds have not been totally risk-free when compared
to the stock market. Betas over the past 40 years have varied
from 0 to 0.25. A 20-year regression of monthly returns indicates
0.25 as the current beta of long term government bonds. Combining
the equity risk embedded in the long bond with the equity risk
in stocks gives an adjusted market risk premium of 5.8%. They
note that for most companies, where their beta is near one, the
simple market risk premium of 4.35% should provide a reasonable
cost of equity estimate.
- A Monte Carlo simulation to explore the market risk premium
in a dynamic environment found that one-third of all 30-year periods
will be outside the range of 3.0%-8.7%.
- The data suggests that equity risk premiums are in decline,
potentially due to structural economic changes.
- The market risk premium of 5.8% is similar to the authors' findings
in the United States, where a 6.8% premium was noted. On a simple
unadjusted basis, the U.S. premium was 5%.
While the finding might suggest a lower real cost of equity in
Canada, the difference may not be significant.
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| How Are They Performing? |
| Money management firms continue to go public, but
as the graphs show, their latest stock performance has been lackluster.
Canadian companies have underperformed broad industry benchmarks,
and have underperformed their U.S. cousins as well. |
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| DC Plans Underperform DB |
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Defined contribution (DC) pension plans have been underperformers,
according to Mike Heale, director, Cost Effectiveness Measurement
Inc., in Toronto. This conclusion comes from analysis, using U.S.
data, of large corporations who sponsor both DC and defined benefit
(DB) plans.
Although DC plans produced higher actual returns than their DB
counterparts, this was entirely due to more equity exposure and
more concentration in U.S. stocks. When actual returns were compared
to a passive benchmark, and costs were netted out, DC plans underperformed.
DC actual returns were calculated by multiplying the gross return
of each investment option by its year-end weighted proportion of
assets. Policy return is the passive index benchmark. Operating
costs include direct investment management costs as well as asset
management related governance and administration costs.
It is worth noting that DC operating costs, including record keeping,
were very low. Total costs averaged 36bps of plan assets (compared
to an average 114bps annual expense charge for domestic equity mutual
funds in the U.S.). One reason for the low costs came from the 44%
of DC assets in GICs and company stock, which either have very low
fees, or costs that can't be measured. Costs rose to 55bps when
these assets were not included.
Last year saw corporate defaults rise to a level not seen since
the 1991 peak. In total, 48 rated companies defaulted on debt totaling
US$10.9 billion, according to Standard and Poor's annual study on
corporate defaults. 37 were U.S. companies, seven were Russian,
four were Indonesian, two were Canadian, and one was Chinese.
On the flip side, the number of newly rated obligors that received
speculative-grade ratings outnumbered those that received investment-grade
ratings, continuing a trend begun in 1997.
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| Opinion |
| Sustainable Development
vs. Share Price |
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Over the past decade, many Canadian companies have transformed
sustainable development from "concept" to "application".
The shareholder benefit of this transformation has been positive,
based on the outperformance of a large-cap portfolio of sustainable
development companies vs. the TSE 100 since 1995.
Companies become practitioners of sustainable development by minimizing
the environmental impact of their activities, while simultaneously
bringing value-added to the communities in which they operate from
both social and economic perspectives. For example, in addition
to minimizing impacts to air, water and land, many companies will
commit to a local procurement and employment policy, infrastructure
improvement initiative, transferable skills training program, creation
of a local trust fund, etc., in an overall effort to ensure that
communities realize benefits from local operations.
Corporations are not driven to sustainable development by an overwhelming
desire to be altruistic, but rather by their fiduciary responsibility
to create shareholder value. In other words, sustainable development
is good business. Beyond anecdotal evidence, there is now quantitative
research to support this position. A portfolio of companies that
were practitioners of sustainable development was created (see chart).
The average annual compounded return of the portfolio outperformed
the TSE 100 by approximately 6.9% over 3.7 years. Relative to other
portfolios that might be considered in the same "family"
as the sustainable development port folio, returns of the Desjardins
Environment Fund and the Ethical Growth Fund effectively mirrored
the TSE 100.
The superior share price performance of these companies probably
extends beyond simple cause-and-effect factors (i.e. a mining company
branded as a "good corporate citizen" will increasingly
be welcomed into communities when seeking licensing for new operations).
By definition, companies that are committed to sustainable development
think long-term, which would presumably extend to such key areas
as production line efficiency, employee compensation, new market
opportunities and financing options.
Brian Schofield and Blair Feltmate are partners, Sustainable
Investment Group, in Toronto.
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| Quotables |
| Getting Active |
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"When institutional investors don't vote, or vote without
paying close attention to the implications of their vote for the
ultimate value of their holdings, they are hurting not only themselves
but beneficiaries of the funds they hold in trust. Therefore, it
seems to me to be a self-evident proposition, that institutional
investors have to be activist corporate citizens...Even if you wanted
to run away from a poorly managed company, you couldn't all do it
at once--it would too greatly affect the price of the stock. So,
like it or not, it seems to me that, as a practical business matter,
institutional investors are going to have to become more and more
active shareholder-owners, and less and less passive investors...good
corporate citizens, not only analyzing and voting on the issues
but, where necessary, taking the initiative to put items of vital
interest to them on the corporate ballot."
Robert Monks, founder of Institutional Shareholder Services,
and self-proclaimed shareholder activist.
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