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There is a hotly-debated book making the rounds these days entitled
Dow 36,000. It comes from co-authors James K. Glassman and
Kevin A. Hassett, a fellow and a resident scholar respectively at
the American Enterprise Institute. The two are predicting U.S. stocks
are "in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground--to
the neighbourhood of 36,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average."
Glassman and Hassett aren't the only ones espousing this new paradigm
theory of course. Just the same, it is noteworthy for those with
an eye on Canadian stock markets that their book has achieved such
a high profile. Even the general interest magazine The Atlantic
Monthly jumped on the bandwagon, running an excerpt front and centre
in its September issue.
The Dow has become a cover model for the well-heeled.
Can the same be said about the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 composite
index? How about the Vancouver or Montreal exchanges? Not hardly.
Sure, there has been some interesting articles published lately
about the relative undervaluation of Canadian equities, and the
potential for a real upturn if the world's commodity prices can
regain some of their lost ground. But that is not exactly the stuff
of magazine covers.
What will be front-page news however, if it does indeed come to
pass, is a prediction from Keith Ambachtsheer, leading pension consultant
and founder of Canadian Investment Review, that the federal government
is finally going to make a move on the Foreign Property Rule.
The rule, as you know, is that part of Canada's Income Tax Act
which dictates that no more than 20% of the book value of an individual
or institution's investment portfolio be invested in non-Canadian
holdings.
"My reading of the tea leaves is such that I'm reasonably
confident that something will happen," says Ambachtsheer.
His only concern is that Ottawa will ratchet it up gradually (as
it did when the limit was raised from 10% to 20% earlier this decade).
He called that possibility "only half a victory."
The primary argument against change to the 20% ceiling has been
that the move will trigger a mass exodus of capital, effectively
pulling the rug out from under the Canadian equities market.
This is rubbish of course. The international investment community
will be all over those stocks at the first sign of their being undervalued.
Given the current state of equities here, that may already be their
analysis of the Canadian market.
What's more, an outright elimination of the Foreign Property Rule
would send precisely the right signal to the international finance
community. Those who hadn't considered Canada a good investment
will at least take a fresh look.
And that would make a great cover story.
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